The Scorch of Middle Eastern Flames on the Rice Pot of Bengal
dailycountrytodaybd,
Progga Das
In the context of the twenty first Lcentury, fuel oil is not merely a mineral resource, it is the blood-stream of modern civilization. No sector agriculture, industry, electricity, transportation, food supply, healthcare, or construc-tion can function without it. When a fuel crisis emerges, it ceases to be just a shortage; it becomes a disruption in the very circulation of an economy's lifeblood. The world's most sen-sitive maritime chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, has become the epicenter of escalating con-frontation between Iran and the United States. What began as a shadow conflict has now taken the shape of direct confrontation. As a result, not only has the movement of oil tankers been disrupted, but the nor-mal rhythm of life for people in Bangladesh has also been severely affected. The searing heat of the Persian Gulf's desert and the flames of war are now spreading into the rice pots of ordinary households across Bengal. This is no longer an ordinary crisis, it is the ominous footstep of a looming famine. A recent analysis by Zero Carbon Analytics suggests that this Middle Eastern crisis could raise Bangladesh's fuel import costs by 4.8 billion dollars 40 percent higher than in 2025. This additional expense equals 1.1 percent of the country's GDP. While this figure may appear numerically modest, its real world implications are far more alarming. People waiting 5-7 hours in lines at fuel stations only to return empty handed, farmers unable to irrigate their fields, factories standing silent, and wage earn-ers weeping in the darkness of night. Since disrup-tions began around the Strait of Hormuz, Bangladesh's fuel crisis has intensified dramatically. The country depends on imports for 95 percent of its fuel needs. Unlike developed nations, Bangladesh has never maintained large scale strategic petroleum reserves. Its fuel usage has long resembled a hand-to-mouth existence imported today, consumed tomorrow. In this context, the closure of the Strait has magnified the severity of the crisis to unprece-dented levels. The power sector stands on the brink of collapse. According to data from the Bangladesh Power Development Board, 23 percent of power plants are shut down due to gas shortages. Peak demand stands at 18,500 megawatts, yet production has fallen below 16,000. The industrial sector is in equally dire condition. In major industrial zones, production has dropped to less than half due to short-ages of gas and fuel. Many large export-oriented fac-tories have reduced working hours, and some are on the verge of permanent closure to minimize loss-es. The fuel crisis is no longer confined to factories; it has reached classrooms. To conserve energy, edu-cational institutions are considering reduced hours and a return to online classes. The history of the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated that online edu-cation brought little benefit and, in many ways, stunted the intellectual development of an entire gen-eration. Being forced down that road again is deeply troubling. The most devastating impact, however, is
being felt in agriculture. A signif-icant portion of Bangladesh's irrigation system relies on diesel-powered pumps. With fuel short-ages, farmers cannot irrigate their fields, fertilizer production is dis-rupted, and transportation costs for agricultural goods have sky-rocketed. Consequently, the flames of Middle Eastern conflict are now burning fiercely in the simple plates of rice and salt con-sumed by hardworking farmers. In this century, oil is the force without which a nation becomes paralyzed. When transportation stalls due to fuel shortages, supply chains collapse, and the ultimate consequence of a broken supply chain is famine. The anguish visible today, if pro-longed, will transform food scarcity from a fear into a grim reality. Under the pretext of volatility in the global oil market, domestic inflation has already stabbed the lower and middle classes in the back. The war cries and displays of power between global actors may serve as instruments of supremacy for world leaders, but for ordinary people in Bengal, they represent a theft of the right to survive. If the conflict continues and the fuel crisis becomes pro-longed, food production will decline, employment will shrink, and poverty will intensify. Social insta-bility will inevitably follow. Experts warn that the current fuel crisis may surpass the oil shocks of the 1970s in severity, not merely because prices have risen, but because supply itself has been interrupted. Diplomatic statements alone are insufficient to over-come this situation. Under the authority of the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation, strategic reserves must be expanded urgently to cover at least several months of demand. At the same time, reliance on a single region must be reduced by ensur-ing alternative supply sources and routes. Dependence on oil in the power and agricultural sec-tors must be reduced through a transition toward solar, wind, and LNG based systems. Fuel efficiency in public transportation must be increased, and strict measures should be taken to prevent wastage. Incentive programs can also be introduced at the cit-izen level to encourage energy conservation as a habit. If military tensions among major powers shat-ter global supply chains and trigger famine in vul-nerable countries, the moral responsibility for that damage must also fall upon those warring nations. Yet in reality, no one accepts responsibility, while ordinary working people in Bengal bear the suffer-ing. Therefore, there is no alternative to immediate, farsighted decision making. Otherwise, this fire will spread into the very structure of the state, damaging the economy, governance, and social order. Government, administration, and citizens at all lev-els must work collectively to overcome this fuel cri-sis. Only then can the country emerge from this ordeal and begin a renewed journey toward a resilient Bangladesh.
The writer is a Student, Department of Economics, Eden Mohila College
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